Outlook 2014:2 in English
Outlook 2014: 2 by the Growth Barometer consists of two parts:
A summary of the market situation and an updated economic forecast
At each meeting within the Growth Barometer, a reconciliation is made of how the market has developed since the last meeting. Participating business leaders report the development in their specific industry and market exposure, which is linked to the development of selected indicators. It provides a qualified picture of the global market situation and is weighed together with the Growth Barometer’s economic forecast. The forecasts are published three times a year (January, April and October).
A summary of the thematic report “When the World Citizen Becomes Middle Class”
Twice a year, the Growth Barometer conducts an Outlook, an in-depth analysis within a specific theme. Themes are proposed by the participating companies and prepared by the Growth Barometer, with comments from the faculty. An abbreviated version of the analysis is published in Outlook 2014: 2.
“Even though the global economy has already begun a protracted period of lower growth, the average world citizen will become much richer in the coming decades. This in turn has far-reaching implications for the composition of the world economy. This study deals with what the development of consumption patterns can look like when the world citizen becomes middle class. With an increasing income comes changing consumption patterns. An ever smaller proportion consists of life’s necessities in the form of food and clothing. Instead, the importance of different types of services such as health care, leisure and recreation as well as financial services increases. Consumption of capital goods such as cars and white goods constitutes a more constant share and is growing at about the same rate as the economy as a whole.
In this report, we analyze a scenario for how consumption patterns globally as well as in China and India will develop by 2030. During this period, the average Chinese consumer will advance in the income scale from a level corresponding to the United States in 1951 to that which prevailed in the Western world at the end. of the 1980s. India is also facing a significant income boost but is not reaching the same income levels at all. Today, the average Indian’s income corresponds to that of the United States in 1933 and advances in the period to the level of the United States in 1951, or China’s today.”